Social Engineering Blogs

An Aggregator for Blogs About Social Engineering and Related Fields

Will the Price of Cubans Rise or Fall?

There’s a Seinfeld episode in which Kramer orders some Cubans. Jerry thinks he’s ordering cigars but Kramer actually brought three Cuban men over so they could roll cigars for him. He didn’t get cigars because they were illegal.When America cut ties with Cuba after Fidel Castro took over, it became illegal to do business with Cuba. Whenever something is banned or difficult to get all of a sudden people want the banned or difficult to get things even more. That’s the principle of scarcity at work on the human psyche. Here are just a few examples.There was a point in time when you could only get Coors beer west of the Rockies. As a kid I remember my dad and his brothers talking about how good Coors was when they could get it. None of them drinks Coors now.Yuengling is another example of a beer that was hard to come by, at least in Ohio, until recent years. I recall traveling with a friend who made it a point to stop at a conveience store in West Virginia just to buy a case of Yuengling. Twinkies started flying off the shelf when it was announced Hostess was discontinuing the cake-filled treat.Back in 2001, Oldsmobile exceeded it sales goal by a higher percentage than better-known brands such as BMW, Kia, Porsche and many others, when it was announced the car line was being discontinued.I’m a Scotch lover and asked an expert at a tasting event his thoughts on aged Scotch (25 years and older). He said he tries a glass but doesn’t buy a bottle because age doesn’t necessarily mean better taste. He said the reason the price is so much higher for aged Scotch is just because there’s less of it. Why do we naturally feel compelled to take advantage of scarce resources or opportunities? From Influence Science and Practice:“One prominent theory accounts for the primacy of loss over gain in evolutionary terms. If one has enough to survive, an increase in resources will be helpful but a decrease in those same resources could be fatal. Consequently, it would be adaptive to be especially sensitive to the possibility of loss.” (Haselton & Nettle, 2006) Now here’s the interesting thing – once something is no longer scarce we don’t want it as much. There’s a good chance we’ll see this play out with Cuban cigars. Now that relations between the U.S. and Cuba have been normalized it’s a sure bet Cuban cigars will be easier to get. In all likelihood there will be a rush to get them when they initially hit the store shelves. However, as they become more commonplace it’s likely people won’t value them as much.Humans are not always predictable so there’s no guarantee I’m correct in my assessment of what will happen with Cuban cigar prices. Only time will tell. However, given how scarcity works on the human mind and surveying similar scenarios from the past, if I were a betting man I’d bet on a price fall shortly after Cubans – cigars that is – hit the U.S. market.Brian Ahearn, CMCT® Chief Influence Officer influencePEOPLE Helping You Learn to Hear “Yes”.

Jerry Seinfeld: Following the Lead of an Expert

I’m a big Seinfeld fan. No matter how many times I’ve seen an episode I always laugh. I’ve watched reruns so many times over the past 25 years I feel like Jerry, George, Elaine and Kramer are personal friends. What I appreciate most is how the show portrays everyday situations in such a humorous light. An episode I watched recently went right to the heart of one of the principles of influence, so I felt compelled to write about it.

In this particular Seinfeld rerun Jerry bought a fancy, very expensive tennis racquet from Milosh, the owner of the sporting goods store associated with the tennis club Jerry belonged to. A short time later Jerry discovered Milosh was a terrible tennis player while playing at another club with Elaine. Apparently Milosh was so bad he wouldn’t play at his own club because he knew it would kill his reputation and sales. The following conversation ensued between Jerry and Elaine later at Jerry’s apartment:
Elaine – “So he was bad. What do you care?”
Jerry – “Elaine, I paid $200 for this racquet because he said it’s the only one he plays with. He could play just as well with a log.”
What sealed the deal for Jerry was the thought of a tennis pro – an expert – playing with the suggested racquet. He thought if it was good enough for the pro then of course he should play with it too because pros only use the very best equipment.
Jerry’s actions go to the heart of the principle of authority – we rely on those with superior knowledge, wisdom or expertise, when making decisions. And the advice of an expert is even more effective when someone isn’t sure what to do.
Jerry had been playing with a wooden racquet and had no idea there was a better option available until the pro told him so. Any newer racquet would have been an improvement but the more expensive racquet must be better because, after all, “you get what you pay for,” according to the old saying.
This happens quite often, especially when someone takes up a new sport. They buy lots of fancy, expensive equipment because that’s what the best athletes use. Unfortunately the novices could have saved a lot of hard earned cash by going with good, but less expensive equipment, until they got much better. The very best equipment makes a difference for the very best players because sometimes the difference between winning and losing is a fraction of a second, a single stroke, or inches.
Is expert advice worth listening to? Most of the time, yes, but just be leery when that advice might lead to very costly purchases that make very little difference in the end.
Brian Ahearn, CMCT® 
Chief Influence Officer
influencePEOPLE 
Helping You Learn to Hear “Yes”.